The risks of multiple breadbasket failures in the 21st century: a science research agenda

Thomson ReutersThis report stems from an international, interdisciplinary workshop organized by Knowledge Systems for Sustainability and hosted by the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, with support from Thomson Reuters, in November 2014.Written by an interdisciplinary team of leading researchers, this report describes a science research agenda toward improved probabilistic modeling and prediction of multiple breadbasket failures and the potential consequences for global food systems. The authors highlight gaps in the existing empirical foundation and analytical capabilities and offer general approaches to address these gaps. They also suggest the need to fuse diverse data sources, recent observations, and new suites of dynamic models capable of connecting agricultural outcomes to elements of the global food system. The goal of these efforts is to provide better information concerning potential systemic risks to breadbaskets in various regions of the world to inform policies and decisions that have the potential for global impacts

Developing Useful and Transferable Skills: Course Design to Prepare Students for a Life of Learning

This article examines evidence of academic skill development and transfer related to the taking of a first year Inquiry-based seminar course designed to enhance a range of self directed learning skills and their transferability to other learning contexts. The study compares a sample of academic work from two groups of Social Sciences students, one comprised of students who had taken the Inquiry course and the other who had not. The student work consists of 1) papers submitted by participants who were asked for the best paper they had written at university and 2) descriptive narratives provided by participants of the steps they took in researching and writing that paper. Qualitative and quantitative analysis by multiple raters using a blinded protocol was conducted. The results show both meaningfully higher paper and skill assessments for students who had taken the inquiry seminar and evidence of transfer of skills and strategy to other learning contexts, supporting the hypothesis that transfer of core skills occurs under particular learning conditions that can be fostered through course design and enhanced through specific pedagogical objectives

The collection 6 MODIS active fire detection algorithm and fire products

AbstractThe two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments, on-board NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, have provided more than a decade of global fire data. Here we describe improvements made to the fire detection algorithm and swath-level product that were implemented as part of the Collection 6 land-product reprocessing, which commenced in May 2015. The updated algorithm is intended to address limitations observed with the previous Collection 5 fire product, notably the occurrence of false alarms caused by small forest clearings, and the omission of large fires obscured by thick smoke. Processing was also expanded to oceans and other large water bodies to facilitate monitoring of offshore gas flaring. Additionally, fire radiative power (FRP) is now retrieved using a radiance-based approach, generally decreasing FRP for all but the comparatively small fraction of high intensity fire pixels. We performed a Stage-3 validation of the Collection 5 and Collection 6 Terra MODIS fire products using reference fire maps derived from more than 2500 high-resolution Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) images. Our results indicated targeted improvements in the performance of the Collection 6 active fire detection algorithm compared to Collection 5, with reduced omission errors over large fires, and reduced false alarm rates in tropical ecosystems. Overall, the MOD14 Collection 6 daytime global commission error was 1.2%, compared to 2.4% in Collection 5. Regionally, the probability of detection for Collection 6 exhibited a ~3% absolute increase in Boreal North America and Boreal Asia compared to Collection 5, a ~1% absolute increase in Equatorial Asia and Central Asia, a ~1% absolute decrease in South America above the Equator, and little or no change in the remaining regions considered. Not unexpectedly, the observed variability in the probability of detection was strongly driven by regional differences in fire size. Overall, there was a net improvement in Collection 6 algorithm performance globally

THE OPERATIONS OF SAVINGS AND LOANS AND THE PERFORMANCES OF BUSINESSES IN ACCRA

Savings and Loans operations in Ghana represent significant development and performance of most businesses and therefore maintaining these Savings and Loans operations is important. However, there seems to be paucity of studies on the operations of savings and loans companies’ effects on the performances of businesses in general and Greater Accra in particular. This research seeks to bridge this knowledge gap by analyzing the operations of savings and loans companies’ effects on the performances of businesses in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana. The study will be guided by three research objectives. Study methods include the use of questionnaire for data analysis. A total of 40 respondents (20 staff of Savings and Loans companies and twenty (20) small business operators (men and women) who took part in this study were randomly purposively selected. The results indicate that small businesses in Accra township sourced start-up capital from savings and loans companies, personal savings and support from friends and families. It also emerged from the study that the business operators that were unable to receive entire amount requested from the financial institutions attributed it to failure to meet the credit requirements, failure to provide the required collateral security and the absence of active account with the financial institutions. Again the study found that credit received by the business operators in Accra township was utilized for the expansion of business. The study further found that business operators in Accra township are confronted with several challenges in accessing credit facilities from Savings and Loans Companies. These challenges include bureaucracy, lack of opportunity to take second loan, high risk and uncertainty, high level of interest rate on credit, low level of knowledge about credit sourcing and shorter repayment period. It is recommended that to enhance small and medium business operators in Accra township access and acquisition of credit facilities from Savings and Loans companies should be efficiently utilized. Keywords: Operations, Savings and Loans, Performance, Businesses, Accra

Corporate Taxes and Foreign Direct Investments: An Impact Analysis

We investigate the effects of corporate taxes on the flow of foreign direct investments (FDI) in Nigeria between 1983 and 2017. The study adopts the ex-post facto research design; secondary data were sourced from the World Bank Development indicator, Central Bank of Nigeria database, and Federal Inland Revenue database. Research data was analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The coefficient of determination (R2) showed that about 77 percent of the systematic changes in FDI are attributed to the combined effect of all the explanatory variables captured in the study. We find that Company Income Tax, Value Added Tax, and Custom and Excise Duties have a significant but negative relationship with FDI. In contrast, Tertiary Education Tax has a positive association with FDI. Also, Exchange Rate had a negative but significant relationship with FDI; Inflation had an insignificant but positive association with FDI, while GDP growth rate and Trade Openness showed a positive and significant association with FDI. Our findings deviate from previous results, as we find new evidence that a higher Education tax rate influences FDI, and the emerging evidence on the effect of non-tax variables on FDI inflow. Keywords: Corporate Taxes, Foreign Direct Investments, Error Correction Model, Nigeria, Non-tax Variables. JEL Classification: E22, F21, H2, P33. DOI: 10.7176/PPAR/10-9-07 Publication date:September 30th 202

TAX RISES IMPACT ON THE SPENDING PATTERN OF THE POPULATION IN GREATER ACCRA REGION OF GHANA

The study was aimed at examining the role of high tax rises on the spending patterns of the people in Accra township of Ghana. The research gathered data from both secondary and primary sources and used the quantitative research method approach. The key instruments used for the data collection was questionnaire. In all seventy (70) respondents were selected for the study comprising thirty five (35) people from Accra township and thirty five (35) University of Ghana students. The study found out that taxation is very good for nation building since the allocation of funds depends upon the collection of taxes and the government used that revenue for specific purposes. This has a direct economic impact on the socio economic development of Ghana. The study found out that there is a fairly strong relationship between people spending and high tax rises. That is to say the study found out that when tax is high it affects people spending negatively especially the poor because it reduces their income levels, put a tax burden on them, it increases their expenditure and it also increases poverty. The study found out that to be able to ensure effectiveness and efficiency in our tax system it is essential to strike the right balance between designing an attractive tax, there must be transparency and effectiveness in the tax system, tax reform needs to be promoted to widen the tax base and bring a larger part of the population into the formal economy and also tax must reduce excessive reliance on aid and offers a path away from unsustainable revenue streams  It is recommended that the government of Ghana should structure the tax based system in a way that there is no inequality in the payment by the poor and the rich and also the people of Ghana should understand the importance of taxation for the development of Ghana and hence there should not be invasion of tax since tax brought to light the importance of tax. Keywords: Tax, Spending Pattern, Population, Greater Accra Region, Ghana

AN EXAMINATION OF FACTORS LEADING TO THE COLLAPSE OF PUBLIC SECTOR ORGANIZATIONS IN GHANA: A CASE STUDY OF METRO MASS TRANSPORT

Tax payers money are been used every day in Ghana to establish public sector organizations. This is why the management of public sector organizations is important in sustainable development. The main objective of this study was to examine the factors leading to the collapse of Metro Mass Transit in Ghana. The study revealed literature on transportation, the role of the state in public transportation, the nature of Metro Mass Transit operations, management practice of Metro Mass Transit and challenges of the public transport system. The study purposively sampled sixty (60) respondents which comprises of 30 workers of Metro Mass Transit (10 Professional Drivers, 10 Senior Management Staff and 10 Junior Staff) and 30 passengers (comprising of 15 passengers from Metro Mass Transit, 5 passengers of OA Transport, 5 passengers of VIP Transport and 5 passengers from VISION Transport). The major findings of the study revealed that Metro Mass Transit offers scheduled trips on intercity and intra city route but does not offer quality transport services as private transport like OA, VIP and VISION does in Accra. The study also found out that passengers prefer private transport more to Metro Mass Transit because the workers have good communication skills as compared to the workers of Metro Mass Transit in Accra, Metro Mass Transit officials have inefficient managerial skills and therefore can’t meet the demands of their customers, Metro Mass Transit have inadequate operation buses, there is frequent breaking of Metro Mass Transit vehicles. The study recommends that the management of Metro Mass Transit should make proper use of Public Private Partnership. This can help in securing more buses to boost their operations. The study also recommends that the management of Metro Mass Transit should work on improving their management practices to enhance performance in other to meet the demand of their customers. Again the management of Metro Mass Transit should ensure that there is frequent maintenance of vehicles to enhance effective operations and also management must also try to maintain an optimum level of providing good communication and effective managerial skills in order to improve its operations.  Keywords: Factors, Collapse, Public Sector Organizations, Metro Mass Transport, Ghana

Association Between Gabapentin Receipt for Any Indication and Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption Scores Among Clinical Subpopulations With and Without Alcohol Use Disorder.

BACKGROUND: Current medications for alcohol use disorder (AUD) have limited efficacy and utilization. Some clinical trials have shown efficacy for gabapentin among treatment-seeking individuals. The impact of gabapentin on alcohol consumption in a more general sample remains unknown. METHODS: We identified patients prescribed gabapentin for ≥180 consecutive days for any clinical indication other than substance use treatment between 2009 and 2015 in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study. We propensity-score matched each gabapentin-exposed patient with up to 5 unexposed patients. Multivariable difference-in-difference (DiD) linear regression models estimated the differential change in Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) scores during follow-up between exposed and unexposed patients, by baseline level of alcohol consumption and daily gabapentin dose. Analyses were stratified by AUD history. Clinically meaningful changes were a priori considered a DiD ≥1 point. RESULTS: Among patients with AUD, AUDIT-C scores decreased 0.39 points (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.05, 0.73) more among exposed than unexposed patients (p < 0.03). Potentially clinically meaningful differences were observed among those with AUD and exposed to ≥1,500 mg/d (DiD 0.77, 95% CI 0.15, 1.38, p < 0.02). No statistically significant effects were found among patients with AUD at doses lower than 1,500 mg/d or baseline AUDIT-C ≥4. Among patients without AUD, we found no overall difference in changes in AUDIT-C scores, nor in analyses stratified by baseline level of alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Patients exposed to doses of gabapentin consistent with those used in clinical trials, particularly those with AUD, experienced a greater decrease in AUDIT-C scores than matched unexposed patients

Automatic Sub-Pixel Co-Registration of LandSat-8 OLI and Sentinel-2A MSI Images Using Phase Correlation and Machine Learning Based Mapping

This study investigates misregistration issues between Landsat-8/OLI and Sentinel-2A/MSI at 30 m resolution, and between multi-temporal Sentinel-2A images at 10 m resolution using a phase correlation approach and multiple transformation functions. Co-registration of 45 Landsat-8 to Sentinel-2A pairs and 37 Sentinel-2A to Sentinel-2A pairs were analyzed. Phase correlation proved to be a robust approach that allowed us to identify hundreds and thousands of control points on images acquired more than 100 days apart. Overall, misregistration of up to 1.6 pixels at 30 m resolution between Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2A images, and 1.2 pixels and 2.8 pixels at 10 m resolution between multi-temporal Sentinel-2A images from the same and different orbits, respectively, were observed. The non-linear Random Forest regression used for constructing the mapping function showed best results in terms of root mean square error (RMSE), yielding an average RMSE error of 0.07+/-0.02 pixels at 30 m resolution, and 0.09+/-0.05 and 0.15+/-0.06 pixels at 10 m resolution for the same and adjacent Sentinel-2A orbits, respectively, for multiple tiles and multiple conditions. A simpler 1st order polynomial function (affine transformation) yielded RMSE of 0.08+/-0.02 pixels at 30 m resolution and 0.12+/-0.06 (same Sentinel-2A orbits) and 0.20+/-0.09 (adjacent orbits) pixels at 10 m resolution

Polypharmacy in HIV: recent insights and future directions.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Update findings regarding polypharmacy among people with HIV (PWH) and consider what research is most needed. RECENT FINDINGS: Among PWH, polypharmacy is common, occurs in middle age, and is predominantly driven by nonantiretroviral (ARV) medications. Many studies have demonstrated strong associations between polypharmacy and receipt of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMS), but few have considered actual adverse events. Falls, delirium, pneumonia, hospitalization, and mortality are associated with polypharmacy among PWH and risks remain after adjustment for severity of illness. SUMMARY: Polypharmacy is a growing problem and mechanisms of injury likely include potentially inappropriate medications, total drug burden, known pairwise drug interactions, higher level drug interactions, drug--gene interactions, and drug--substance use interactions (alcohol, extra-medical prescription medication, and drug use). Before we can effectively design interventions, we need to use observational data to gain a better understanding of the modifiable mechanisms of injury. As sicker individuals take more medications, analyses must account for severity of illness. As self-report of substance use may be inaccurate, direct biomarkers, such as phosphatidylethanol (PEth) for alcohol are needed. Large samples including electronic health records, genetics, accurate measures of substance use, and state of the art statistical and artificial intelligence techniques are needed to advance our understanding and inform clinical management of polypharmacy in PWH